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Thursday, August 27, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 August



Triangle indeed - except it broke downward heh. There was a typical "thrust" move out of the triangle. Support slipped a tiny bit at 1018 and recovered. The thrust was just too much to produce more selling and dip buyers churned the market higher.

The Minute [iv] correction is over. We are starting up on the final subwaves toward P2 peak. There are several questions that need to be asked:

1) Do we have the degree labels correct? I must assume we do. It all counts well enough and "looks" correct. Indeed since Minor B was a shallow pullback, don't expect Minor C to run too far up. Bullishness supports the degree labels.

2) What are the targets? 1048 is a good target. Its .618 Fib of (Y). See the SPX daily.

3) Whats going on with the dollar? Its hard to tell. My best guess is that it may wind up an ending diagonal move for wave 5.

What are some things we need to look for?

1) Up volume ratio. Bullish up volume ratio is okay as long as the day ends less than a 10-1 day. Any day that ends higher I would assume my degree labels are one degree too large for Minor C and that it will extend higher to a possible 1100 target or more.

2) Impulse patterns or ending diagonal wedge-type moves to include impulse 5 wave moves down (not the slop we have seen lately)

3) How the market deals with the bear wedgeline if it makes it there.

My general thoughts are that the market will top on Sep 1st much like it rushed out the gate in a bullish fashion on the first "full" trading day in 2008 in September. Then it sank like a stone.

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